Specifying the Number of Runs
The more runs specified, the more accurate the probabilistic analysis will be. However,
the trade-off is a longer simulation time. When multiple parameters are
given an uncertainty, more runs are required to generate smooth results.
The number of runs can range from a few hundred to tens of thousands depending
on the complexity of the model, the number of uncertain parameters, and
the magnitude of the applied uncertainty. Due to this variability, it
is not possible to offer guidelines as to the minimum required number
of runs. Rather, this can be determined based on the CDF
of the output
parameters; if the CDF is not smooth, more runs are required.
Once the number of runs is specified, click Run Probabilistic Simulation. While the simulation is running, the Harmony project is essentially locked. If the analytical model cannot generate a valid forecast, that run is discarded from the results. Completed runs, success rate of runs, remaining time, and history-match parameters can all be monitored in the Running Probabilistic Simulation dialog box.
