The probabilistic analysis is designed to address uncertainty in well performance in the following areas:
- Expected performance and recovery in new wells (that is, proven, and undeveloped locations)
- True analytical probabilistic forecasting for wells with established production history
The probabilistic module uses Monte Carlo simulation to generate stochastic outputs for reservoir parameters such as OFIP, EUR, linear flow parameters (when applicable), and the production forecast. The model can be constrained to a known well history using automatic parameter estimation, which optimizes key input parameters to ensure there is a minimum level of conformance with production history. Dependencies between input parameters can be specified using a correlation matrix. Results are displayed with histograms, shaded plots, and cross-plots of statistical outputs.